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Regarding my beliefs

March 26, 2012

TLDR:  I will publish opinions which are often wrong.  Furthermore, the content here will rarely be original.


Two things:


I’ll be publishing a lot of my personal opinions on this blog.  My beliefs have miscalibrations and I may try to put rough probability estimates on predictions, so I can own up to them.  Unfortunately, I’m under-informed and possibly misinformed about many issues, including physics, biology, and health/nutrition.  Most of all, I expect to be wrong a lot regarding economics and politics.  I declare Crocker’s rules, so you can help me do updating.

(Hopefully flaming and trolling won’t be an issue, despite the fact that opinions and the internet (especially in conjunction) tend to make things flammable, since there’s roughly a 99.99% chance there will be no regular readership outside of perhaps my friends…  (Of course, given that somebody else is reading this, that probability drops immensely, so in this case, it would have looked better for me to not report my true belief.))


My thoughts will rarely be original.  This blog will often be for collecting and organizing thoughts which were motivated by (i.e. stolen from) others.  I hope to give credit when it’s due, but sometimes influences are indirect, so I’ll make up for it now.  I’ve been a follower of Robin Hanson’s blog, Overcoming Bias, which is much better than mine.   I also owe to the culture at Lesswrong, and at 80,000 hours.  My thoughts/beliefs are also highly influenced by my strange but awesome friends at MIT, especially Paul Christiano.


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